Last updated: 3 August 2026
Reviewed by Jordan Makin, FA Level 2 Football Coach
Stolen base analysis
Success rate
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Frequently asked questions
Why is the break-even rate about 70%?
A successful steal is worth roughly half a run; getting caught out costs roughly three-quarters of a run. The ratio of cost-to-benefit requires approximately 70% success to break even. Elite base stealers like Rickey Henderson sustained 80%+ success rates, making their stolen bases very valuable.