PDO = (team save % + team shooting %) × 100. Named after a blogger, it’s a measure of luck — teams above 101 are running hot (their goalies are stopping more than average AND their shooters are scoring more than average), which is unsustainable. Teams below 99 are running cold. PDO is a strong predictor: high-PDO teams tend to decline; low-PDO teams tend to improve. It always regresses to 100 league-wide because every goal scored (shooting%) is also a goal allowed (save%). PDO became mainstream in hockey analytics via Corsi and advanced stats bloggers in the 2010s.
Key points
- Save% + Shooting% × 100
- 100 = perfectly neutral/average
- Above 101 = lucky (expect regression)
- Below 99 = unlucky (expect improvement)