Last updated: 3 October 2026
Reviewed by Jordan Morley, FA Level 2 Football Coach
PDO = (team save % + team shooting %) × 100. Named after a blogger, it’s a measure of luck — teams above 101 are running hot (their goalies are stopping more than average AND their shooters are scoring more than average), which is unsustainable. Teams below 99 are running cold. PDO is a strong predictor: high-PDO teams tend to decline; low-PDO teams tend to improve. It always regresses to 100 league-wide because every goal scored (shooting%) is also a goal allowed (save%). PDO became mainstream in hockey analytics via Corsi and advanced stats bloggers in the 2010s.
- Save% + Shooting% × 100
- 100 = perfectly neutral/average
- Above 101 = lucky (expect regression)
- Below 99 = unlucky (expect improvement)
In practice
PDO (team shooting percentage plus save percentage, which should hover near 100 over time for most teams) is used by hockey analysts as a rough measure of how much luck or 'puck luck' is inflating or deflating a team's results — a team with an unusually high PDO early in a season is often expected to regress toward 100 over time, which analysts use to predict whether a surprising hot or cold streak is sustainable.
FAQ
What does a PDO above 100 mean for a hockey team?
It suggests the team is currently benefiting from unusually favourable shooting and/or goaltending luck relative to the league average, which statistically tends to regress back toward 100 over a larger sample.
Why do analysts use PDO to question a team's early-season form?
Since PDO (shooting % + save %) tends to regress toward 100 over time for most teams, an extreme early-season PDO (very high or very low) is often seen as unsustainable and likely to normalize as the season progresses.