Tennis scoring is a chain: points build games, games build sets, sets build matches. From your probability of winning a point on serve and on return, you can compute your chance of holding, breaking, and ultimately winning the match. A striking feature is how small edges compound — winning just 55% of points usually translates to winning the match the large majority of the time.
Key points
- Point → game → set → match chain
- Built from serve and return point-win rates
- Small edges compound dramatically
- 55% of points ≈ winning most matches
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Put this into practice with our free calculator.
Open the Tennis Match Win Probability →