Expected Goals (xG) assigns a probability (0-1) to each shot based on its characteristics. A penalty = 0.79 xG; a header from close range = ~0.68; a shot from 25 metres = ~0.03. Match totals reflect attack quality independent of finishing luck. Teams that consistently outperform their xG (score more than expected) typically regress over time. xG was popularised by analytics companies like StatsBomb and Opta and is now standard in professional scouting, broadcasting and football journalism.
Key points
- Probability of a shot being scored (0-1)
- Accounts for location, shot type, pressure
- Match xG reflects attack quality
- Over-/under-performance tends to regress
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