Win probability estimate
Win probability
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Frequently asked questions
What is win probability used for?
Win probability powers live game analysis, fourth-down decision analysis (should a team kick or go for it?), and TV broadcasts. A team punting from their own territory up 3 in Q4 with 2 minutes left likely has >85% win probability.
Why does this say 50/50 when we're tied?
When teams are tied with significant time left, home-field advantage and other factors push the line slightly, but without that data 50/50 is the appropriate baseline.