First serve in% is the fraction of first serves that land in the service box. Tour average is 60-65%; below 55% puts excessive pressure on the second serve. When a player’s first serve goes in, they win approximately 70-78% of those points (tour average); on second serve, the winner wins only 50-55% of points. This gap between first-serve-points-won and second-serve-points-won explains why first serve in% is one of the most predictive match statistics. A high first serve% with strong points-won% is the hallmark of a dangerous server.
Key points
- Tour average 60-65%
- Below 55% puts pressure on second serve
- 1st serve win ~75%; 2nd serve win ~52%
- High 1st serve % = less second serve exposure
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